2015.05.25走势分析:通胀回稳强化利率调整预期

2015-05-25

基本面分析：

国际金价上周五再次跌破1210后继续偏空走势，但临近1200关口得到支撑小幅反弹，走势仍然受到美元指数的压制，美指周线长阳后已突破并持稳于96关口上方，后期有望继续拓展反弹空间。美国公布的4月CPI数据符合预期再次印证了美联储对于长期通胀稳定的看法，消费增长和制造业扩张虽有放缓，但住房市场保持稳定，也使得短期利率有上升的趋向，从而支持了美联储于年内调整利率的观点。

美联储主席耶伦在上周六的讲话中对于年内加息依然持开放态度，对于一季度经济放缓则评价为暂时性因素，就业市场稳步改善和通胀企稳成为加息的重要基础，这些观点与美联储4月政策声明和会议纪要的措辞吻合，也体现出在对待加息上美联储内部的分歧已开始缩小，2015年重返正常利率已是大势所趋。美元得到利好支持后升值空间有望得到拓展，而黄金则继续震荡调整。

技术面分析：

日线级别黄金弱势下行，多次冲高回落凸显走势不振，空头掌握盘面优势后对于反弹带来较大阻滞，5日线下穿10日线后形成双重压制，MACD红柱几近消散削弱了回升动能；四小时图布林带向下收口对于走势有不利影响，跌破反弹趋势线后继续偏空运行。

阻力位：1208/1213
支撑位：1201/1196
交易方向：空

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