2015.05.11 走势分析：宽松竞赛再起，美指震荡回调

2015-05-11

基本面分析：

现货黄金今日早盘时段遇阻1190后小幅下行，反弹遇到较大阻力使得走势较为胶着，市场对于非农的解读充满分歧的情况下暂时难以有大的方向突破，宽幅整理成为主基调。美元指数冲高至95.26后再次回落至95关口附近，美联储可能推迟加息的预期令美元反弹缺乏持续性，原油价格于年内高位60美元/桶附近整理亦对美元走势有不利影响。

随着英国大选结束，保守党胜出后卡梅伦连任英国首相，英镑得到看好已反弹至3月以来的新高。而欧元区财长会议本周一将再次就希腊债务问题进行讨论，虽然在本周达成援助协议的可能性不高，但各方立场趋向一致后希腊债务违约和退欧风险已逐渐消退。另外为遏制经济下行，欧元区和中国持续货币宽松给美联储调整利率带来了较大挑战，预期中的6月加息可能有所推迟，这也限制了美元的反弹空间。

技术面分析：

黄金未能有效突破1190进行回调整理，空头整体上仍占据盘里优势，下方1183的支撑面临考验，MACD快慢线零轴下方走平运行增加宽幅震荡，上方1193构成颈线阻力难以突破；四小时图依托反弹趋势线运行，稳固1180附近的支撑有利于拓展反弹空间，KD指标中值水平运行短期维持区间整理。

阻力位：1191/1196
支撑位：1181/1176
交易方向：高空低多

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