2015.05.07 走势分析：冲高回落后黄金尚需非农指引

2015-05-07

基本面：

现货黄金昨日宽幅震荡，早间下行至1190附近后向上突破至1198附近，受阻回落后调整至1188附近，回吐部分涨幅后多头获利盘得到一定程度消化，多空格局再度趋向平衡。美元指数则受到不及预期的4月ADP数据打压震荡走低，非美货币上升对于美元反弹构成较大压力。4月ADP就业人数录得16.9万人大幅低于市场预期，连续两个月增幅放缓凸显就业市场改善前景遇到挑战。

美联储主席耶伦昨日的讲话并未过多涉及到货币政策，在强调实现充分就业和物价稳定前实施低利率的必要性的同时，对于美国股市估值过高则表达了忧虑。而亚特兰大联储主席洛克哈特的讲话则语气偏鹰，在强调一季度经济疲软只是暂时现象的同时，乐观预期二季度经济将恢复增长并达到2.5%-3%的水平，并称包括6月在内的以后每次货币政策会议都将讨论加息议题。

技术面：

日线级别黄金回调整理，再次下行至1190附近后多空重回平衡，空头于1198一线构成了较强的卖盘压力对黄金走势有不利影响，MACD快慢线未能粘合给反弹制造阻力；四小时图回落至布林带中轨1187后进入盘整，KD指标朝卖区运行震荡整理时间延长。

阻力位：1193/1198
支撑位：1183/1178
交易方向：高空低多

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